Monetary Policy impotence

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We had a good read. For the benefit of yourself. Be sure to read to the end. I want you to get good knowledge from Mortgage Rates Forecast . Panel 1 OCR cut wont matter much RBNZ has slow super tanker RBA has a jet boat Panel 2 Lets explain 87% of mortgages fixed NZ bln rolls over soon Most set 2 yrs ago at 8-8.5% Will reset now around 8.5-9% Panel 3 Effective mortgage rate rising Will drop just 10bps in 3 yrs Thats the RBNZ forecast Yet OCR to fall 150 bps Panel 4 Why wont mortgage rates fall Foreign funding up 150-200bps Banks owe NZ5 bln overseas Open economy No choice We castrated our own RBNZ Panel 5 However, RBA moves immediate 75% of loans are variable rate. Changes take 1 week Immediate effect Panel 6 We need a positive yield curve Should RBNZ cut drastically? No. But worth considering May happen anyway Panel 7 Foreigners may increase rates May see us as risky NZ debt higher than US debt Net a jet boat

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