Friday, May 18, 2012

House Prices in France Resist in Final Quarter

Mortgage Rates Forecast - House Prices in France Resist in Final Quarter
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This diagnosis of a particular digit mean fall in prices for 2009 is broadly shared by most other observers of the market, together with the notaires and the major national agents who each do their own quarterly diagnosis of the market.

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The 10% fall in house prices can only be discerned over the past two years, while flats have fallen by 5.4% over the same period, agreeing to Fnaim.

After two successive years of a fall in prices, they are now at a level where they were at the end of 2005.

Given the spectacular rise in prices of 140% in the middle of 1997 and 2007, Fnaim argue that 'the bubble has not exploded, it has just begun to deflate gradually.'

Fnaim consider that cheap reputation and a rise in household incomes over the past decade has contributed in controlling the fall in prices, although they retort that 'those with the most modest incomes' have been driven out of the market.

This point gets many confirmation in a modern article from the Observatoire du crédit logement, who noted that buying a property required on mean 3.2 years of earnings in 2001, against more than 4.3 in 2009.

This may well be one calculate why it was a very quiet year for actual sales, with only colse to 550,000 sales for the full year, a fall of 21% over 2008, down to a level not seen for the best part of a decade.

It was also a very similar photo for new building starts and new planning consents.

The mean national fall in prices also disguises some vital regional variations. Largest fall in house prices occurred in Poitou-Charentes where prices fell by 15.3%. Other large falls occurred in Nord-Pas de Calais (15.2%), Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur (12%), Picardie (11.1%) and Centre (9%).

In the larger towns and cities the fall is close to, or exceeds 10%, in Toulouse, Grenoble, Clermont-Ferrand, Orléans, Strasbourg and Troyes. All other major cities have decreased except Cannes (+1.1%) and Bordeaux (+0.7%). Prices in Paris fell by 1.8%, but with large differences across the city.

Outlook for 2010

To the surprise of some observers Fnaim argue that the market seems to be 'in balance with the fundamentals', as a effect of which they do not exclude the possibility of price rises in 2010.

Nevertheless, given the uncertainly in the economic outlook they are cautious about any firm predictions for this year, so they have rather hedged their bets by forecasting a stablisation of prices in the range -3% to +3%.

This is a scenario that is also ordinarily supported by the national estate agent chain Century 21, who consider that prices may rise in the middle of 1% and 3% due to strong demand, a shortage of properties, and cheap reputation conditions.

The agents article a saving in the whole of sales in the last quarter, and consider that as long as reputation conditions remain favourable, this trend will continue.

Others are a slight more cautious about the outlook, notably Orpi, someone else large national chain of agents, whose president Bernard Cadeau stated recently that 'the pick-up in the market is real, but fragile.'

National agents Lafo­rêt Immobilier likewise consider that prices will remain stable this year, but that no real saving in the market can be thinkable, before 2011 or 2012. 'To take out a loan for 20 to 25 years assumes trust in the future, and with uncertainties about the economic saving omnipresent, no enormous growth in the level of action can be anticipated', they stated in a modern report.

Credit Agricole also argue that there will be no saving in the market in 2010, and that prices of older properties are likely to continue to fall slightly, due primarily to low quiz, in the face of uncertainly and a 10% rate of unemployment.

'With prices having only fallen by a moderate amount, household creditworthiness has improved only slightly, prices remain overvalued, and the cost of acquistion remains too high for many buyers', they argued in a modern report. They consider a fall of a additional 10% in prices is vital to restore buyer purchasing power.

The major online mortgage broker Meilleurtaux also considers no upturn is likely next year. 'As long as households have no great trust in the future, and while unemployment remains high, it is difficult to anticipate a major restoration of house buying in 2010, even if interest rates remain low', said Sandrine Allonia, head of economic studies at Meilleurtaux.com.

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